Gold bulls hang tough in risk-on trading environment

Date: 17/12/2019

Jim Wyckoff Tuesday December 17, 2019 13:16
Kitco News

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(Kitco News) Gold prices are holding mild gains in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, despite U.S. and some European stock indexes at or near record highs amid keener risk appetite in the world marketplace at present. It appears the psychology of safe-haven metals traders may be changing from one of lower geopolitical risks being bearish, to one of a better global economic climate due to the partial U.S.-China trade deal being bullish due to likely increasing demand for metals. The recent depreciation of the U.S. dollar on the world foreign exchange market is also bullish for the metals markets, as is a rallying crude oil market. February gold futures were last up $1.20 an ounce at 1,481.70. March Comex silver prices were last down $0.013 at $17.10 an ounce.

Asian stock indexes were mostly higher overnight, while European shares were mixed to weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are higher and at record highs at midday today. European shares were rattled Tuesday on news U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to introduce legislation to bar extension of Brexit talks beyond one year, which many believe is not enough time for a “soft” Brexit. The British pound also fell on the news.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a corrective bounce after hitting a 4.5-month low last Friday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are up, hit a three-month high today and are trading around $61.00 a barrel.

Technically, February gold futures bulls and bears are still on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy and sideways trading. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,453.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,484.90 and then at the December high of $1,491.60. First support is seen at $1,470.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,463.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0.

March silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $17.185 and then at the December high of $17.415. Next support is seen at $16.82 and then at the Decembers low of $16.565. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 20 points at 281.40 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today and closed at a 4.5-month high close. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and still have upside momentum. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 295.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 270.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 283.10 cents and then at 285.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 278.15 cents and then at 275.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.

By Jim Wyckoff