Jim Wyckoff Tuesday December 31, 2019 13:19
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Editor’s Note: 2020 is expected to be another year of significant uncertainty and turmoil. But the question is what asset will emerge the victor when the dust settles from the global trade war, Brexit, recession threats, negative bond yields. It’s a showdown of global proportions, so don’t miss all our exclusive coverage on how these factors could impact your 2020 investment decisions.
(Kitco News) – Gold prices are higher and hit a two-month high in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. The yellow metal closed out December and the year 2019 with a technically bullish monthly high close. A slumping greenback on the world foreign exchange market is now in focus for precious metals market bulls, helping to propel prices higher. February gold futures were last up $6.30 an ounce at 1,524.90. March Comex silver prices were last down $0.046 at $17.955 an ounce.
Trader and investor attitudes remain upbeat going into 2020, due in large part to the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China, seeing a thaw in the more-than-two-year-old trade war that has slowed global economic growth. Most believe a partial trade deal will be signed in January. Traders are reckoning better global economic growth in 2020, due to at least a partial U.S.-China trade agreement, will spur better consumer and commercial demand for the precious metals.
A feature in a generally quiet, holiday marketplace the past few days has been many currencies rallying significantly against the U.S. dollar, including the Swiss franc, Euro currency, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar. The U.S. dollar index hit a five-month low overnight and is poised to close at a technically bearish monthly low close today, which would suggest more downside price pressure for the greenback in early January, or longer. This is a bullish development for the entire raw commodity sector, as most raw commodities are priced in U.S. dollars on the world market.
The other key “outside market” today sees Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading around $61.50 a barrel.
Technically, February gold futures prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a two-month high and closed at a bullish monthly high close on this last trading day of the month. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid an accelerating six-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,550.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,500.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,529.00 and then at $1,532.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,517.50 and then at this week’s low of 1,513.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.
March silver futures prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a seven-week high early on today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a fledgling price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at today’s’ high of $18.20 and then $18.25. Next support is seen at $17.81 and then at $17.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.
March N.Y. copper closed down 350 points at 279.85 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today on a corrective pullback after hitting a 7.5-month high last week. The copper bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 295.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 275.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 282.20 cents and then at this week’s high of 283.80 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 279.40 cents and then at 277.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.
By Jim Wyckoff