Gold prices regain $1,500 as U.S. dollar slumps

Date: 17/10/2019

Jim Wyckoff Thursday October 17, 2019 12:40
Kitco News

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(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are moderately higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday. A depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market and a batch of U.S. economic data released Thursday morning that was a mixed bag but leaned just a bit on the weak side, gave the precious metals markets a lift. December gold futures were last up $5.30 an ounce at 1,499.40. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.188 at $17.615 an ounce.

A weaker U.S. stock market at midday today is also working in favor of the safe-haven metals bulls.

However, gains in the metals were tempered Thursday on reports the U.K. and the European Union have reached a deal for the U.K. to leave the EU (Brexit) under good conditions. The deal needs to be ratified by both governments’ parliaments, however. The Brexit news is making for a strong rally in the British pound, which has hit a four-month high today.

Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower and trading around $53.00 a barrel today.

The other key “outside market” saw the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a six-week low. The greenback is fading, due in part to some downbeat U.S. retail sales data released Wednesday and today’s tepid U.S. data, which ups the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut coming soon.

Technically, the gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,525.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $1,465.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,503.00 and then at $1,515.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,487.00 and then at last week’s low of $1,478.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.

The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a five-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $16.94. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $17.765 and then at $18.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.33 and then at this week’s low of $17.18. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 25 points at 259.20 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 270.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 248.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 261.75 cents and then at this week’s high of 264.15 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 257.30 cents and then at 254.75 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff