Gold rallies as confident bulls buy the early dip

Date: 17/08/2021

Jim Wyckoff  Monday August 16, 2021 11:52

 

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(Kitco News) – Gold prices are moderately up in midday U.S. trading Monday. The bulls have momentum on their side and stepped in to do some bargain hunting on the overnight/early-morning dip in prices. The yellow metal has made a solid recovery from the August lows and the bulls and bears are now back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. More gains this week would put the bulls back in control of the charts. A bit more anxiety in the marketplace early this week  also produced a bit of safe-haven demand. October gold futures were last down $3.50 at $1,772.50 and September Comex silver was last down $0.309 at $23.475 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday but up from session lows. The market place is uneasy to start the trading week, amid a geopolitical flare-up. In stunningly rapid fashion, the Taliban has taken over Afghanistan following the recent U.S. military withdrawal from the country. Reports say there are still American citizens trapped in the country.

Meantime, the marketplace is also focusing on the prospect of the Federal Reserve tightening its monetary policy sooner than the central bank has heretofore suggested. Federal Reserve officials appear to be sounding that alarm in their comments. Some Fed watchers are now saying the tightening could come as early as this fall. The stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for July has helped stoke those ideas.

Weaker-than-expected economic data out of China Monday also has traders and investors edgy to start the trading week. China’s industrial production in July was up 6.4%, year on year, but the marketplace expected a rise of 7.8%. The surging delta variant of Covid-19 likely has crimped China’s economic growth and that has traders worried the same could happen to other major economies in the coming weeks/months.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $67.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.263%. The German 10-year bond (bund) is trading at minus 0.469% and the U.K. 10-year gilt at 0.563%.

Technically, gold bulls and bears are now back on a level overall near-term technical playing field and the bulls have momentum on their side. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,789.00 and then at $1,800.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,769.80 and then at $1,760.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

The silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $22.295. First resistance is seen at $24.00 and then at $24.38. Next support is seen at today’s low of $23.38 and then at $23.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 660 points at 432.65 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 462.75 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 409.40 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 438.15 cents and then at last week’s high of 443.10 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 430.35 cents and then at the August low of 424.35 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News