Gold, silver gain on safe-haven demand, short covering

Date: 13/11/2019

Jim Wyckoff Wednesday November 13, 2019 13:07
Kitco News

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(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are moderately higher in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. The precious metals are seeing some safe-haven demand at mid-week, along with some short covering in the futures markets, from the shorter-term traders, following recent selling pressure. December gold futures were last up $8.10 an ounce at 1,461.80. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.168 at $16.86 an ounce.

Risk aversion is a bit keener at mid-week following remarks made by President Trump in a speech in New York Tuesday. The mercurial Trump appeared to suggest the U.S. is not so keen on removing its tariffs on Chinese imports. While he said trade talks are going well and a “Phase 1” deal could be reached soon, reports have said the Chinese are adamant that the U.S. tariffs must be removed to get a Phase 1 trade deal signed. It should be not at all surprising that the marketplace’s perception of progress on the trade talks between the world’s two largest economies has down-ticked in recent days. The trade talks’ progress or lack thereof has been a rollercoaster affair for the markets for many months.

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly down overnight. The U.S. stock indexes did push just above unchanged and were at their daily highs at midday, which did push the gold and silver markets off their session highs.

Gold and silver prices may also be seeing a slight safe-haven bid on Trump’s bashing of the Federal Reserve again in his remarks to economists in New York. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified on the U.S. economy in front of Congress today but failed to say anything to makes the markets move significantly.
Trump’s browbeating of the Fed may or may not be a market factor or an influence on the Fed’s policy actions. However, many feel Powell has and will continue to lean easy on U.S. monetary policy due in part to Trump’s berating of him and the Fed for not lowering interest rates more.

Gold and silver are also benefitting from an escalation in protesting and violence this week in Hong Kong. The civil unrest is spreading in the city and appears likely to get worse before it gets better.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $57.35 a barrel.

Technically, December gold futures prices were near mid-range at midday. The bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices have been trending lower for two months. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,425.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,467.60 and then at $1,475.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,456.40 and then at $1,450.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5.

December silver futures prices were near mid-range on short covering after hitting a three-month low Tuesday. The silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for two months. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $17.00 and then at $17.10. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $16.615 and then at $16.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 60 points at 264.00 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range low today on more mild profit taking from recent gains. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices have been trending up for six weeks. But the bulls need to show fresh power very soon to keep the uptrend alive. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 280.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 260.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 267.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 269.00 cents. First support is seen at 262.80 cents and then at 260.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.

By Jim Wyckoff