Jim Wyckoff Tuesday January 14, 2020 12:41
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Editor’s Note: 2020 is expected to be another year of significant uncertainty and turmoil. But the question is what asset will emerge the victor when the dust settles from the global trade war, Brexit, recession threats, negative bond yields. It’s a showdown of global proportions, so don’t miss all our exclusive coverage on how these factors could impact your 2020 investment decisions.
(Kitco News) – Save-haven gold and silver prices are lower again in midday U.S. futures trading Tuesday. Upbeat trader and investor attitudes, as evidenced by rallying global stock markets, including the U.S. stock indexes hitting record highs overnight, continue to work against the competing asset class of precious metals markets. February gold futures were last down $7.60 an ounce at 1,543.00. March Comex silver prices hit a three-week low today and were last down $0.251 at $17.75 an ounce.
As long as the global stock markets are in rally mode, the gold and silver markets will continue to struggle. The geopolitical scene has quieted down markedly the past few days, which has emboldened the stock market bulls.
The marketplace this week is focused on the U.S.-China partial trade agreement that is scheduled to be signed Wednesday in Washington, D.C. The trade deal is expected to boost global economic growth in 2020. China Tuesday reported its exports grew by just 0.5% in 2019, compared to 10% growth in 2018, as evidence of the trade war with the U.S. damaging China’s economy. China’s imports were reported down 2.8% in 2019 compared to rising 16% in 2018.
The Chinese yuan has appreciated to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since last summer, after the U.S. on Monday announced China was no longer on its list of currency manipulators.
The key outside markets today see crude oil prices firmer and trading around $58.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up at midday today.
Technically, February gold futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old price uptrend in still place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $1,571.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,525.00. First resistance is seen at $1,550.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,563.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,536.40 and then at 1,530.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.
March silver futures bulls have slight the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast and need to show fresh power soon. An uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $18.895 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $18.00 and then at this week’s high of $18.13. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.69 and then at $17.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.
March N.Y. copper closed up 105 points at 287.15 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and hit another eight-month high today. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A four-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 300.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of 275.95 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 287.30 cents and 290.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 284.95 cents and then at 282.50 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5.