Gold, silver lose altitude as key outside mkts see sharp reversals

Date: 07/07/2021

Jim Wyckoff  Tuesday July 06, 2021 13:03

 

Editor’s Note: With so much market volatility, stay on top of daily news! Get caught up in minutes with our speedy summary of today’s must-read news and expert opinions. Sign up here!

(Kitco News) – Gold prices are higher but well down from daily highs, while silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Early today, the two metals hit nearly three-week highs amid what were at that time bullish outside markets: as crude oil prices were sharply up and hit a 6.5-year high and the U.S. dollar index was weaker. However, around midday those two markets sharply reversed course to see crude oil prices trade solidly lower and the USDX push to decent gains on the day. That sent gold and silver bulls running for cover. The gold bulls were able to hold more moderate gains, however. August gold futures were last up $10.00 at $1,793.30 and September Comex silver was last down $0.316 at $26.18 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed to flat overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday on profit taking after the S&P and Nasdaq poked to new record highs early on, following a three-day U.S. holiday weekend.

Summertime, low-volatility trading doldrums may resume this week, amid notions the major central banks of the world may have to keep their money policies easier for longer following recent economic data that was not deemed robust enough to start to pull back the reins on very accommodative money policies. Traders are looking ahead to Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the June FOMC meeting. Australia’s central bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its meeting Tuesday and indicated it won’t raise interest rates before 2024.

The key outside markets at midday today see the U.S. dollar index higher and near the daily high. Nymex crude oil futures are solidly lower and nearer the daily low and did hit a 6.5-year high of $76.98 a barrel overnight. Energy traders are buzzing about the recently concluded OPEC meeting that ended in disagreement with no changes to oil output. That appears bullish near-term but could be bearish long-term as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are in sharp disagreement on the UAE’s production level. Such could unravel the oil cartel down the road and lead to all-out pumping by the cartel members. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.367%. Treasury yields have been falling recently and that is bullish for gold and silver.

Technically, the gold and silver bulls have seen their near-term chart postures improve a bit.

August gold futures bears and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A four-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,750.10. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at today’s high of $1,815.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,784.70 and then at $1,775.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $25.00. First resistance is seen at $26.50 and then at today’s high of $26.91. Next support is seen at $26.00 and then at the June low of $25.58. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 285 points at 424.75 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 450.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 400.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 433.55 cents and then at today’s high of 440.25 cents. First support is seen at 420.00 cents and then at the June low of 409.40 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News