Jim Wyckoff Thursday November 04, 2021 13:24
(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices on Thursday recovered all of Wednesday”s sharp losses. It appears metals traders were preparing for a hawkish FOMC statement and tone from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon, but then after the fact reckoned the Fed may not be leaning as hawkish on U.S. monetary policy as many expected. Also, it appears to be a classic case of “sell the rumor, buy the fact” from the shorter-term futures traders, regarding the Fed monetary policy tightening. December gold was last up $29.40 at $1,793.30 and December Comex silver was last up $0.699 at $23.935 an ounce.
The FOMC meeting that ended Wednesday afternoon saw the Fed announce its tapering of monthly bond buying, as expected. It”s expected the tapering will wind down next June. There were no big surprises in the FOMC statement or Fed Chair Powell”s press conference, which suggested the marketplace had pretty well dialed in the outcome. Powell did suggest that U.S. interest rate hikes do not necessarily have to come after tapering winds down–and that leaned a little dovish and may have helped lift gold prices.
The regular monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England saw the BOE leave its monetary policy unchanged. However, the BOE has hinted recently that its monetary policy will also start to tighten due to inflationary pressures.
Speaking of inflation, it”s running hotter in the Euro zone. The zone”s September producer price index was reported up 2.7% from August and up a whopping 16.0%, year-on-year.
Global stock markets were mixed to mostly firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. The U.S. indexes hit record highs today.
Traders are awaiting Friday”s important U.S. employment situation report for October. The key non-farm payrolls component of that report is expected to rise 450,000 compared to a rise of 194,000 in the September report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $80.25 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.57%.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls” next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the October high of $1,815.50. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the September low of $1,721.10. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at $1,815.50. First support is seen at $1,780.00 and then at today”s low of $1,769.30. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5
December silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at this week”s high of $24.175 and then at $24.50. Next support is seen at today”s low of $23.485 and then at this week”s low of $23.045. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5.
December N.Y. copper closed up 70 points at 432.90 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a three-week low. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 455.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 410.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today”s high of 440.40 cents and then at this week”s high of 445.05 cents. First support is seen at today”s low of 427.80 cents and then at 425.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0.
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