Rallying U.S. equities sink gold, silver markets

Date: 15/10/2019

Jim Wyckoff Tuesday October 15, 2019 13:23
Kitco News

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(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. A rally in the U.S. stock market is pressuring the precious metals today. December gold futures were last down $13.80 an ounce at 1,483.80. December Comex silver prices were last down $0.30 at $17.41 an ounce.

Risk aversion is not at all keen Tuesday despite traders and investors backing off on their initial upbeat assessment of the U.S.-China “Phase 1” trade agreement reached last week, and which has yet to be signed.

China’s trade war with the U.S. brought more dour news on China’s manufacturing front Tuesday. The world’s second-largest economy saw its producer price index down 1.2% in September, year-on-year. Consumer price inflation rose 3% year-on-year in September, due to a surge in food prices at up 11%. The food rise was led by a more than 69% rise in pork prices due to the spreading African swine fever disease.

Germany’s economy got more downbeat data Tuesday. The closely watched ZEW survey current situation index fell to -25.3 in October versus -19.9 in September, and -23.6 as the consensus forecast. The ZEW survey expectations index was -22.8 in October compared to -22.5 in September and
-26.4 that was forecast.

There are geopolitical matters lingering not far from the front burner of the marketplace that could flare up at any time. Gold and silver bulls are biding their time.

Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $53.60 a barrel today. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index slightly down in midday U.S. trading.

Technically, December gold futures prices were near the session low at midday, scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart and closed at a two-week low close today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,525.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $1,465.00. First resistance is seen at $1,500.00 and then at $1,508.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,478.00 and then at $1,465.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.

December silver futures prices were nearer the session low at midday today and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The silver bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, a five-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $16.94. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $17.765 and then at $18.00. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $17.305 and then at $17.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 225 points at 261.15 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. The copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 270.65 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 248.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 264.15 cents and then at 266.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 259.40 cents and then at 257.50 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff