Strong gains in silver, but well off overnight 8-yr high

Date: 01/02/2021

Jim Wyckoff  Monday February 01, 2021 12:27

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(Kitco News) – Silver futures prices are trading sharply higher and overnight hit an eight-year high of $30.35, basis March Comex futures, but backed well off the high in midday U.S. trading Monday. Retail traders, emboldened by social media chatrooms, are working on a short squeeze in the market, meaning trying to force traders short the silver market to capitulate. Gold is following silver higher and is also seeing a bit of safe-haven demand amid a recently wobbly U.S. stock market. April gold futures were last up $13.90 at $1,864.10 and March Comex silver was last up $1.896 at $28.80 an ounce.

The feature in the marketplace to start the trading week and the month of February is silver prices soaring as retail traders are looking for a “short squeeze” in the market. Social media lit up during the weekend, especially on Reddit, as the growing retail band of traders looked to slay another market–this time silver–that they claim is dominated and manipulated by the “big boys” on Wall Street. This follows the GameStop saga that played out last week, whereby the smaller retail traders put the squeeze on big hedge funds that had shorted the troubled business. The silver is a much bigger beast to take on than is a smaller individual stock and the silver futures market trading way down from the daily high at midday makes some wonder if the Redditor longs have run out of gas. Still, the Redditors have put a scare into many on Wall Street, especially the big hedge funds that like to short stocks they feel will be in some trouble either at present or in the future.

Importantly, the gold and silver markets had a bit of a tailwind behind them before the Redditor trade kicked in. Many veteran market watchers were already reckoning the “inflation trade” would boost raw commodity markets, including the metals, what with major central banks and governments pumping so much liquidity into financial systems in order to jumpstart major world economies that have been crippled by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher at midday, after opening lower in Sunday evening trading. Declines in the rate of Covid-19 infections and deaths in the U.S. are positive elements for trader and investor sentiment.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $53.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.06%.

Technically, April gold futures were nearer the session high at midday. The gold bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the January low of $1,804.70. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,878.90 and then at $1,900.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,851.70 and then at last week’s low of $1,832.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

March silver futures were up $1.971 at $28.88 at midday today and nearer the session low after hitting an eight-year high overnight. The silver bulls have gained the strong overall near-term technical advantage after the steep gains of the past three days. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at today’s high of $30.35 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at $29.50 and then at $30.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $28.155 and then at $27.77. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 145 points at 354.15 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a four-week low close. The copper bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices have been trending down for three weeks. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 373.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 360.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 364.15 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 349.10 cents and then at 345.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.